{"id":21953,"date":"2025-08-02T14:44:43","date_gmt":"2025-08-02T14:44:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/certifeka-edu.com\/programs\/finance-for-strategic-managers-accounting-professional-certificate\/lessons\/lesson-2-decision-tree-analysis\/"},"modified":"2025-08-08T17:55:04","modified_gmt":"2025-08-08T17:55:04","slug":"lesson-2-decision-tree-analysis","status":"publish","type":"lesson","link":"https:\/\/certifeka-edu.com\/ar\/programs\/finance-for-strategic-managers-accounting-professional-certificate\/lessons\/lesson-2-decision-tree-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Lesson 2: Decision tree analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"21953\" class=\"elementor elementor-21953\" wpc-filter-elementor-widget=\"1\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2c18a13 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"2c18a13\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6374ebb e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"6374ebb\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3232dcf exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"3232dcf\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"96\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/certifeka-edu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/logos-png-01-296x57-1.png\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-16861\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/certifeka-edu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/logos-png-01-296x57-1.png 96w, https:\/\/certifeka-edu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/logos-png-01-296x57-1-10x12.png 10w, https:\/\/certifeka-edu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/logos-png-01-296x57-1-42x50.png 42w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 96px) 100vw, 96px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5f96301 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"5f96301\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-398f0aa exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"398f0aa\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Lesson 2: Understanding Business Risk\n<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-83bcf5e e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"83bcf5e\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c139a8 exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8c139a8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Decision tree analysis\n\n<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7ae0c1c exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"7ae0c1c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"660\" height=\"495\" src=\"https:\/\/certifeka-edu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tree.png\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-23015\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/certifeka-edu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tree.png 1024w, https:\/\/certifeka-edu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tree-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/certifeka-edu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tree-600x450.png 600w, https:\/\/certifeka-edu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tree-768x576.png 768w, https:\/\/certifeka-edu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tree-16x12.png 16w, https:\/\/certifeka-edu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/tree-67x50.png 67w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 660px) 100vw, 660px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-982cb12 exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"982cb12\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h5><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Decision trees combine the concept of Expected Monetary Value with the concept of joint probability.<\/span><\/h5><h5><br \/><span style=\"color: #000080;\">This approach is useful when the possible outcomes of a decision and their probabilities are arising in sequence, as a result of risks<\/span><\/h5>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e75d51b exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"e75d51b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Decision tree analysis\n\n<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4ef778b exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"4ef778b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h5><span style=\"color: #000080;\">A contractor is faced with a choice that the client has offered: a Firm Fixed Price contract with the contract price of $100,000 and a &#8220;no liquidated damages&#8221; clause; or with the contract price of $115,000 and a &#8220;liquidated damages&#8221; clause.<\/span><\/h5>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2a36558 exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"2a36558\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h5><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Liquidated damages will be $50,000 if the schedule is not met.<\/span><\/h5>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b634650 exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"b634650\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h5><span style=\"color: #000080;\">The contractor knows from experience that there is a 5% chance of missing the schedule, a 60% chance that his cost will be $90,000 and a 40% chance his cost will be $80,000.<\/span><\/h5>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-805d72e exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"805d72e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h5><span style=\"color: #000080;\">The decision to take the contract without the liquidated damages clause contains only the cost risk, as there is no impact if the contractor is late.<\/span><\/h5>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a9f3ef2 exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"a9f3ef2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h5><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Here, in order to take into account the revenue (contract price) and cost, the outcomes need to be expressed as profit.<\/span><\/h5>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fcb5932 exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"fcb5932\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h5><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Based on the EMV, the contractor should choose the contract with the liquidated damages clause.<\/span><\/h5>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","class_list":["post-21953","lesson","type-lesson","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Lesson 2: Decision tree analysis - Certifeka-edu<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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