{"id":23714,"date":"2025-08-11T18:37:09","date_gmt":"2025-08-11T18:37:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/certifeka-edu.com\/programs\/research-for-strategic-development-professional-certificate\/lessons\/lesson-4-quantitative-forecasting-methods-moving-average-forecasting\/"},"modified":"2025-08-21T14:41:42","modified_gmt":"2025-08-21T14:41:42","slug":"lesson-4-quantitative-forecasting-methods-moving-average-forecasting","status":"publish","type":"lesson","link":"https:\/\/certifeka-edu.com\/ar\/programs\/research-for-strategic-development-professional-certificate\/lessons\/lesson-4-quantitative-forecasting-methods-moving-average-forecasting\/","title":{"rendered":"Lesson 4: Quantitative forecasting methods &#8211; Moving average forecasting"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"23714\" class=\"elementor elementor-23714\" wpc-filter-elementor-widget=\"1\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a7237c4 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"a7237c4\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-30c0985 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"30c0985\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-eed338f exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"eed338f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"96\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/certifeka-edu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/logos-png-01-296x57-1.png\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-16861\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/certifeka-edu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/logos-png-01-296x57-1.png 96w, https:\/\/certifeka-edu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/logos-png-01-296x57-1-10x12.png 10w, https:\/\/certifeka-edu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/logos-png-01-296x57-1-42x50.png 42w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 96px) 100vw, 96px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-df5a1e0 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"df5a1e0\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e459fba exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"e459fba\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Lesson 4: Forecasting and Predictive Analytics\n<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6633245 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"6633245\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-38a7c9e exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"38a7c9e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Moving average forecasting<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ab16b7e exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"ab16b7e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h5><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Moving average forecasting is a statistical technique used to analyse time series data by calculating the average value of a variable over a specific period of time, with the aim of identifying trends and patterns in the data. In this technique, a moving average (MA) is computed by taking the average of a fixed number of most recent data points in the series.<\/span><\/h5>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ddfeb49 exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"ddfeb49\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h5><span style=\"color: #000080;\">This average is then used to forecast future values of the variable. The length of the period used in the moving average is referred to as the &#8220;window size&#8221; or &#8220;order of the MA&#8221;, and can be adjusted to account for different levels of volatility in the data.<\/span><\/h5>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d9ea368 exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"d9ea368\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h5><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Moving average forecasting is commonly used in finance, economics, and other fields to make predictions about stock prices, sales figures, and other economic indicators.<\/span><\/h5>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-865a95e exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"865a95e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">How to calculate simple moving average:<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e9b6af7 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"e9b6af7\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9bf5c34 exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-n-accordion\" data-id=\"9bf5c34\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;default_state&quot;:&quot;expanded&quot;,&quot;max_items_expended&quot;:&quot;one&quot;,&quot;n_accordion_animation_duration&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;ms&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:400,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]}}\" data-widget_type=\"nested-accordion.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-n-accordion\" aria-label=\"Accordion. Open links with Enter or Space, close with Escape, and navigate with Arrow Keys\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<details id=\"e-n-accordion-item-1630\" class=\"e-n-accordion-item\" open>\n\t\t\t\t<summary class=\"e-n-accordion-item-title\" data-accordion-index=\"1\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-expanded=\"true\" aria-controls=\"e-n-accordion-item-1630\" >\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class='e-n-accordion-item-title-header'><div class=\"e-n-accordion-item-title-text\"> 1. Establish the time frame you want to review <\/div><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class='e-n-accordion-item-title-icon'>\n\t\t\t<span class='e-opened' ><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-minus\" viewbox=\"0 0 448 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M416 208H32c-17.67 0-32 14.33-32 32v32c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h384c17.67 0 32-14.33 32-32v-32c0-17.67-14.33-32-32-32z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t\t<span class='e-closed'><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-plus\" viewbox=\"0 0 448 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M416 208H272V64c0-17.67-14.33-32-32-32h-32c-17.67 0-32 14.33-32 32v144H32c-17.67 0-32 14.33-32 32v32c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h144v144c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h32c17.67 0 32-14.33 32-32V304h144c17.67 0 32-14.33 32-32v-32c0-17.67-14.33-32-32-32z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/summary>\n\t\t\t\t<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"e-n-accordion-item-1630\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f5a4430 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"f5a4430\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"e-n-accordion-item-1630\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d1ec9d7 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"d1ec9d7\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6c82acc exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6c82acc\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h5><span style=\"color: #000080;\">The first step to calculate the simple moving average of a commodity is to consider the length of time in which you want to pull data from. For example, you could determine the desired time frame to be five days, 50 days, 100 days or 200 days.<\/span><\/h5>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/details>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<details id=\"e-n-accordion-item-1631\" class=\"e-n-accordion-item\" >\n\t\t\t\t<summary class=\"e-n-accordion-item-title\" data-accordion-index=\"2\" tabindex=\"-1\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"e-n-accordion-item-1631\" >\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class='e-n-accordion-item-title-header'><div class=\"e-n-accordion-item-title-text\">  2. Look at the highest price points for each time interval  <\/div><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class='e-n-accordion-item-title-icon'>\n\t\t\t<span class='e-opened' ><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-minus\" viewbox=\"0 0 448 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M416 208H32c-17.67 0-32 14.33-32 32v32c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h384c17.67 0 32-14.33 32-32v-32c0-17.67-14.33-32-32-32z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t\t<span class='e-closed'><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-plus\" viewbox=\"0 0 448 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M416 208H272V64c0-17.67-14.33-32-32-32h-32c-17.67 0-32 14.33-32 32v144H32c-17.67 0-32 14.33-32 32v32c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h144v144c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h32c17.67 0 32-14.33 32-32V304h144c17.67 0 32-14.33 32-32v-32c0-17.67-14.33-32-32-32z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/summary>\n\t\t\t\t<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"e-n-accordion-item-1631\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6628616 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"6628616\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"e-n-accordion-item-1631\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c783003 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"c783003\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-acbb832 exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"acbb832\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h5><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Say you decide to pull price data for seven days.<\/span><\/h5><h5><span style=\"color: #000080;\">This means that each day, you review stock prices for a commodity and select the highest price point to represent that time interval (one day).<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Because you want to determine the simple moving average for seven days, you need to check back on stock prices each day, recording the highest price point for the remaining six days.<\/span><\/h5><h5><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Here is an example that shows price fluctuations for a coffee brand&#8217;s stock:<\/span><\/h5><ul><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Day one: $8.95<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Day two: $8.50<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Day three: $8.85<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Day four: $9.00<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Day five: $8.70<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Day six: $8.55<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Day seven: $8.65<\/span><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/details>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<details id=\"e-n-accordion-item-1632\" class=\"e-n-accordion-item\" >\n\t\t\t\t<summary class=\"e-n-accordion-item-title\" data-accordion-index=\"3\" tabindex=\"-1\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"e-n-accordion-item-1632\" >\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class='e-n-accordion-item-title-header'><div class=\"e-n-accordion-item-title-text\"> 3. Add each price point together  <\/div><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class='e-n-accordion-item-title-icon'>\n\t\t\t<span class='e-opened' ><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-minus\" viewbox=\"0 0 448 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M416 208H32c-17.67 0-32 14.33-32 32v32c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h384c17.67 0 32-14.33 32-32v-32c0-17.67-14.33-32-32-32z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t\t<span class='e-closed'><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-plus\" viewbox=\"0 0 448 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M416 208H272V64c0-17.67-14.33-32-32-32h-32c-17.67 0-32 14.33-32 32v144H32c-17.67 0-32 14.33-32 32v32c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h144v144c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h32c17.67 0 32-14.33 32-32V304h144c17.67 0 32-14.33 32-32v-32c0-17.67-14.33-32-32-32z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/summary>\n\t\t\t\t<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"e-n-accordion-item-1632\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fadbba1 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"fadbba1\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"e-n-accordion-item-1632\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8f681b5 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"8f681b5\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-675a982 exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"675a982\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h5><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Once you record the highest stock prices for a particular commodity over a desired time frame, you need to add each price point to one another.<\/span><\/h5><h5><span style=\"color: #000080;\">For example:<\/span><\/h5><h5><span style=\"color: #000080;\">$8.95 + $8.50 + $8.85 + $9.00 + $8.70 + $8.55 + $8.65 = $61.20<\/span><\/h5><div>\u00a0<\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/details>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<details id=\"e-n-accordion-item-1633\" class=\"e-n-accordion-item\" >\n\t\t\t\t<summary class=\"e-n-accordion-item-title\" data-accordion-index=\"4\" tabindex=\"-1\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"e-n-accordion-item-1633\" >\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class='e-n-accordion-item-title-header'><div class=\"e-n-accordion-item-title-text\"> 4. Divide the total by the number of time intervals established <\/div><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class='e-n-accordion-item-title-icon'>\n\t\t\t<span class='e-opened' ><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-minus\" viewbox=\"0 0 448 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M416 208H32c-17.67 0-32 14.33-32 32v32c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h384c17.67 0 32-14.33 32-32v-32c0-17.67-14.33-32-32-32z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t\t<span class='e-closed'><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-plus\" viewbox=\"0 0 448 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M416 208H272V64c0-17.67-14.33-32-32-32h-32c-17.67 0-32 14.33-32 32v144H32c-17.67 0-32 14.33-32 32v32c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h144v144c0 17.67 14.33 32 32 32h32c17.67 0 32-14.33 32-32V304h144c17.67 0 32-14.33 32-32v-32c0-17.67-14.33-32-32-32z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/summary>\n\t\t\t\t<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"e-n-accordion-item-1633\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-60d0cdc e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"60d0cdc\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t<div role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"e-n-accordion-item-1633\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f0b9813 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"f0b9813\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0720892 exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"0720892\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h5><span style=\"color: #000080;\">After adding each price point together and getting your answer, you need to divide the total by the number of time intervals you recorded for.<\/span><\/h5><h5><span style=\"color: #000080;\">For example:<\/span><\/h5><h5><span style=\"color: #000080;\">$61.20\/7 = $8.74<\/span><\/h5><h5><span style=\"color: #000080;\">Therefore, $8.74 is the average stock price for a coffee brand over the course of one week.<\/span><\/h5>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/details>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","class_list":["post-23714","lesson","type-lesson","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Lesson 4: Quantitative forecasting methods - Moving average forecasting - Certifeka-edu<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/certifeka-edu.com\/ar\/programs\/research-for-strategic-development-professional-certificate\/lessons\/lesson-4-quantitative-forecasting-methods-moving-average-forecasting\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ar_AR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Lesson 4: Quantitative forecasting methods - Moving average forecasting - Certifeka-edu\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Lesson 4: Forecasting and Predictive Analytics Moving average forecasting Moving average forecasting is a statistical technique used to analyse time series data by calculating the average value of a variable over a specific period of time, with the aim of identifying trends and patterns in the data. 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